The Historical Context of Technological Change
AI and technological change are transforming our world at an unprecedented pace. In The Coming Wave, Mustafa Suleyman dives deep into the implications of rapid advancements in AI, warning of both its promises and its perils. The book critically examines how these developments will reshape society, economics, and global dynamics.
Early Tools and the Dawn of Agriculture
The first tools were used by our predecessors hundreds of thousands of years ago and homo sapiens have been using tools throughout our history. These primitive tools allowed humans to begin to develop agriculture, but only after tens of thousands of years of simply using primitive spears and axes to enable hunting and feeding in nomadic societies.
The development of agriculture happened about 10-12,000 years ago and allowed humans to change from a hunter-gatherer lifestyle and begin to grow crops and raise animals. It provided surplus food and, for the first time, allowed some people to concentrate on developing new tools and advancing technology, all be it slowly. Cities developed and the first recognisably modern human societies emerged, slowly.
The Bronze Age, Iron Age, and the Wheel
The Bronze Age was followed by the Iron Age and, as new materials became available, more advanced tools were developed. At the same time, in the new cities created by agricultural surplus, writing was developed allowing people to communicate their new knowledge to others and to pass it from generation to generation.
The first wheel was developed about 5,500 years ago and from their there was no looking back.
After this major shift in human technology advances were made, but these happened slowly. New, horse drawn, vehicles were developed, new weapons were created and, most importantly, people used their new abilities to travel and communicate. Technological changes moved between societies and, at various speeds, groups of people began to use these tools to enhance their knowledge.
The Printing Press and the Industrial Revolution
Later, about 6,500 years after people began growing their own crops, raising domesticated animals and living in cities, the printing press was invented. This suddenly allowed books to be produced on an enormous scale and knowledge to be transmitted quickly.
The Renaissance saw the beginning of proper scientific enquiry. This saw some technological change, but the real move forward began with the start of the Industrial Revolution. Starting in the late 18th Century, the major move forward was the invention of the steam engine, which allowed mechanical production in a number of industries.
Transportation and Communication Breakthroughs
It’s difficult to imagine that up until 199 years ago the only method of transport for most people was walking. A few had the means to ride horses, but most were limited by how far they could walk. The arrival of the first passenger train in 1825 suddenly meant that transport became available for most people and was quick. In the hundred years that followed the motor car was invented, and so were aeroplanes. Electricity and radio and telephone were among changes that, compared to recent centuries, made technological rapid.
The Modern Era of AI and Technological Change
In the past hundred years the rate of technological advancement has been extraordinary. The first mobile phone was sold just over forty years ago. It was just that, a mobile phone. The World Wide Web was accessible in 1991 although it took another ten years for it to reach a truly global audience. Since then, technological changes have happened thick and fast.
Accelerating AI and Technological Change
The point is that the technological changes which have changed society in a significant way were happening only slowly. Over a period of thousands of years. Now these changes are happening within decades and the speed of change is increasing. “We are reaching the decisive point of what, in geological or human evolutionary timescales, is a technological explosion unfolding in successive waves”.
This is central to The Coming Wave. In the book Mustafa Suleyman describes the way technology has advanced and how, over the coming years, AI will lead this advance at an even faster rate. His concern is that these changes are something which can have a very detrimental effect on society if we do not understand them and try to manage them. As he says, “We are about to cross a critical threshold in the history of our species.”
“Ultimately, in its most dramatic forms, the coming wave could mean humanity will no longer be top pf the food chain. Homo technologicus may end up being threatened by its own creation.”
Benefits of AI and Technological Change
Suleyman is very good at describing the dangers of advancing technological development. He is very clear to recognise that technology has had enormous beneficial effects. The development of vaccines and advances in medicine are one area where he is quick to highlight how rapid changes have has positive effects. The use of technology is agriculture, which has allowed an increasing global population to be fed, is another.
The Risks of AI and Technological Change
However, he also includes in this the alleviation of poverty and argues that the decrease in poverty around the world is a product of technological advancement. This clearly is not the case. In the past fifty years there has been a significant change in the distribution of wealth, but in advanced countries this has seen an increase in the wealth of a small number and a decline in the living standards of increasing numbers of people. The USA has also seen a decline in life expectancy. This has happened, not because of technological advances, but because of a political and economic system which has emphasised the power of the individual over the importance of society.
AI and Its Potential Dangers
There are clearly interesting times ahead with the increasing impact AI will have on jobs and on political debate and on the creation of wealth. We can also be concerned about the creation of intelligence which is greater than that of humans. However, it is difficult to believe that that is the real problem we face in the future.
Throughout the book Suleyman, who has had an interesting past working for not-for-profit organisations, as well as in AI, rarely mentions the neoliberal agenda which has led to increasing inequality. He sees the dangers we face in the future centred on our capacity to manage the rapid speed of change we are facing.
Societal Perception and Policy Challenges
There are real problems to be faced by the increasing capacity of AI to increasingly take over the role of humans, but what is central to how this develops and how we deal with this change is how we perceive society. If we continue with policies which focus on diminishing the power of governments and increasing the power of finance, we will inevitably face a future in which advanced technology reflects these priorities.
This is a significant addition to the current debates taking place about AI and the future. Not all of them share the same views as Suleyman, but they all see dangers. Most recently there has been The AI Mirror, by Shannon Vallor, which talks about how we can retain or even reclaim humanity in an age of machine thinking. Robots and the People Who Love Them by Eve Herold also talks about holding on to humanity as does The Atomic Human, by Neil D. Lawrence.
The Global Impact of AI and Technological Change
One of the problems with each of these books is that they concentrate almost exclusively of the development of new technology and the advantages and dangers this might bring. They hardly discuss the fact that these developments are not taking place in a vacuum. They are happening in a real world and reflecting the priorities of that world. Technological developments in China are mentioned in these books in so far as they reflect the ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party, but there is a lack of recognition that developments in the West reflect the ambitions and ideology of those societies.
The Coming Challenges for AI and Society
As long as there is an emphasis on the neoliberal mantra of reducing regulation and taxation and government control, and as long as there is a lack of belief in a society which reflects basic equality, then the technological advancements which we see will reflect the priorities in place. We will get the future we deserve.
